Hybrids Are Nearly Half the New Market: What Happens to Used Prices in Three Years

The figure that actually matters in the July data

Data released on 3 August by Italy's Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport shows a growing July for the domestic market: 123,184 cars registered in the month, up 3.9% on July 2025 [1][2]. Across the first seven months of the year the total reaches 1,060,175 units, up 8.9% on the same period in 2025 [1]. Full-year estimates now point to roughly 1.61 million registrations, a 5.5% increase over 2025 [3].

But the most significant number for anyone watching the used market is not the headline growth. It is the mix. In July, hybrids reached a 47.5% market share [3], a figure that, added to the 10.5% held by plug-in hybrids [3], means more than half of all new cars registered in Italy that month carried some form of electrification.

Why the new-car market writes used prices

The mechanism is simple and frequently overlooked: tomorrow's used market is made up of today's new-car sales. A car registered in 2026 typically enters the second-hand cycle between 2029 and 2030, as long-term rentals expire, corporate fleets rotate and private owners make their first change.

That means the 47.5% share recorded in July is not an abstract statistic. It is a forecast of what used-car supply will look like toward the end of the decade. Anyone buying a petrol saloon today with the intention of reselling in four years is making a bet, consciously or not, on the shape of the market they will have to sell into.

Electric is slowing, and that shifts the picture

A second element in the July data deserves attention because it corrects a widespread narrative. Pure electric cars grew 24.9% in July, taking a 5.9% share, roughly a percentage point above 2025 [2][4]. That is real progress, but the comparison with June is instructive: the previous month had posted 87.1% growth [4].

The cause of that sharp deceleration is openly attributed to incentives, whose exhaustion removed the push that had inflated preceding months [4]. For the used market the consequence is concrete: the flow of electric cars arriving second-hand over the next few years will be thinner than the more optimistic projections suggested. Lower volumes mean less standardised pricing and more variation between individual cars, which is precisely the condition where a well-prepared buyer has the most leverage and an unprepared one carries the most risk.

The three most likely effects on prices

Without inventing numerical forecasts nobody can honestly make, three directions can reasonably be flagged.

The first concerns abundance. With hybrids near half of new sales, in three or four years the used hybrid will shift from being a relatively sought-after choice to being the default supply. Abundance historically compresses prices, so it is reasonable to expect the premium a used hybrid currently commands over an equivalent petrol car to narrow.

The second concerns diesel and pure petrol. As their share of new sales shrinks, their presence among late-model used cars will become rarer. Rarity does not automatically mean value, though: that depends on residual demand, which in cities is increasingly shaped by driving restrictions. The prudent reading is that a split will open up, with sought-after models holding firm while the rest slides.

The third concerns plug-ins. Growing 45.5% to a 10.5% share [3], PHEVs are building a meaningful vehicle population for the first time. They are also the hardest cars to value second-hand, because their worth depends heavily on battery health and on how the car was actually used: a plug-in that was never charged has effectively spent its life as a heavy petrol car.

What to do about it, practically

Some operational guidance for anyone moving now:

• If you are buying a used hybrid today, bear in mind supply will widen considerably in coming years. That is an argument for negotiating harder on price, not against buying at all.
• If you are weighing when to sell a recent hybrid, waiting does not work in your favour: competition in that segment is set to increase.
• If you are buying a used plug-in, ask for charging history or at minimum a battery state-of-health check. It is the variable that separates a good purchase from a poor one.
• If you want a used EV, thinner volumes make the search longer but the negotiation potentially more rewarding on less fashionable models.
• Either way, do not buy on the basis of residual-value predictions. Three-year forecasts for used prices are wrong more often than not, whereas real running costs can be calculated today.

The bottom line

The July 2026 figures do not just describe a new-car market growing moderately. They describe the raw material of the used market at the end of the decade, and that raw material is now half electrified. Anyone buying today with resale in mind would do better to reason about that future pool than about current valuations, while remembering that on any second-hand car the one genuinely controllable variable remains its maintenance history.

Further reading

1. Italian Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, 123,184 car registrations in July, August 2026
2. ANSA, Italian car market grows 3.9% in July, up 8.9% year to date, 3 August 2026
3. alVolante.it, Car market: 2026 running ahead of forecast, estimates raised, August 2026
4. Autoappassionati.it, July 2026 car market: registrations up 3.9%, but without incentives EVs slow to 5.9%, August 2026
5. Quattroruote.it, Italian car market July 2026: registrations grow, electric slows, 3 August 2026