CATL and BYD Now Make Half the World's EV Batteries: What It Means for Your Used Electric Car

The Chinese duopoly few notice, but everyone pays for

In the first half of 2026, the global market for traction battery cells reached 608.5 GWh installed, up 20% year on year (down from 2025's 31.7% pace, but still a strong clip). Buried in that headline is a detail that matters directly to anyone buying or selling an electric car in Italy: CATL alone now holds 39.9% of the global market, with 242.7 GWh installed and 25.3% year-on-year growth, outpacing the broader industry. BYD sits second with 87.7 GWh and a 14.4% share, down from 17.0% a year earlier. Together, the two Chinese firms now control 54.3% of all batteries installed in electric and hybrid vehicles worldwide. Widen the lens to the top ten suppliers and seven are Chinese, together accounting for 72.4% of global production, up one and a half points from a year ago.

This is not just an industry-insider statistic. Anyone buying a used EV today is, in practice, buying a battery pack made by a small handful of Chinese manufacturers, and that concentration has direct consequences for three things buyers and sellers actually care about: parts costs, replacement-module availability, and, by extension, resale value.

Replacement costs are falling, not rising

The number one fear among used-EV shoppers is still the battery: what does it cost to replace if it fails or degrades past a usable threshold? Here is the good news — the same production concentration that raises geopolitical eyebrows is also compressing prices. An LFP (lithium iron phosphate) pack, now the standard chemistry on affordable electric city cars, costs roughly 71 euros per kWh today, nearly 40% cheaper than an equivalent NMC pack, thanks to the absence of nickel and cobalt and CATL's heavy industrial investment in the chemistry. Industry estimates now put the cost of replacing a 100 kWh pack in 2026 at around 7,600 euros, down from 14,200 euros in 2023 — almost a halving in three years. For the smaller packs typical of Italy's best-selling electric city cars (roughly 30-45 kWh), the bill scales down accordingly, with total replacement costs today typically landing between 2,000 and 6,000 euros depending on capacity, chemistry, and whether the work is done at an official dealer, an independent shop, or as a single-module repair rather than a full pack swap.

This trend changes the calculus for sellers: a used EV with an expired warranty is no longer an automatic dealbreaker, because the cost of an eventual repair is now far more predictable, and far lower, than common perception still assumes.

What used EVs are really worth in 2026

The resale numbers, though, tell a more complicated story. Electric cars are currently losing about 48.5% of their value in their first three years on the road, compared with 37.3% for diesels and 36% for petrol cars — a gap still driven by the new-car price war triggered by Asian manufacturers and Tesla's response, which has dragged used-market pricing down with it. In Italy, EV ownership transfers remain a niche segment: roughly 5,000 a month, barely 1% of all used-vehicle transactions in the country. On the used market today you can find a Renault Zoe under 10,000 euros, a Kia e-Niro or Cupra Born in the 20,000-22,000 euro range, and a Dacia Spring still under 10,000 — prices that industry forecasts suggest could fall a further 10-15% by the end of 2026, precisely as battery production costs keep dropping.

For sellers, that means pricing with realistic expectations. For buyers, it means the current moment can be genuinely favourable — provided you know what to check before signing.

What to actually check before buying a used EV

With the battery pack still the single most expensive and uncertain part of the negotiation, three checks make the real difference:

• State of Health (SoH): a diagnostic test at an authorised or specialised workshop typically costs between 50 and 150 euros and returns the pack's real remaining capacity, far more reliable than the range figure shown on the odometer or dashboard.
• Residual warranty and transferability: most manufacturers cover the battery for 8-10 years or 160,000 km, provided capacity does not drop below 70% of original within that window and servicing has been kept up through the official network. Always verify whether that warranty transfers to a second owner or lapses at the change of ownership — it is not automatic, and it varies by brand.
• Residual legal warranty: on an EV older than eight years, or without a full service history, the only remaining protection is the standard one-year legal conformity warranty required on used-vehicle sales, which covers pre-existing defects but not ordinary battery degradation over time.

The concentration risk few people factor in

One less obvious factor is worth watching: a supply chain concentrated among two or three Chinese suppliers means less diversification if a shock hits — tariffs, trade tensions, raw-material bottlenecks in lithium or cobalt, or simply CATL and BYD prioritising one market over another. CATL is already hedging by investing in an alternative chemistry, sodium-ion batteries, with mass production announced for the last quarter of 2026 — a move aimed squarely at reducing lithium dependence and compressing costs further, but one that in the short term adds another technical variable for anyone assessing exactly which battery chemistry they are buying in a used car.

For anyone selling an EV in Italy today, the practical takeaway is twofold: battery replacement cost is a far less frightening selling point than it used to be, and it is worth backing that up with a recent SoH test to reassure buyers. For buyers, pricing remains favourable, but due diligence on warranty terms and actual pack condition is what separates a good deal from a real risk.

Further reading

1. InsideEVs Italia, CATL domina il mercato globale delle batterie EV nel 2026, August 7, 2026
2. CnEVPost, Global EV battery market share in H1 2026: CATL 39.9%, BYD 14.4%, August 7, 2026
3. electrive.com, CATL Expands Its Lead in the Global Battery Market, August 7, 2026
4. ClubAlfa, Batterie auto elettriche: entro il 2026 la sostituzione potrebbe costare la metà
5. AutoScout24, Battery life, costs, and warranties for electric cars
6. Vaielettrico, Svalutazione più rapida per le elettriche usate
7. Mondouomo, Svalutazione Auto Elettriche 2026: perché l'usato ha perso valore